Benchmark on External Events Hazard Frequency and Magnitude Statistical Modelling


At its 61st meeting, the CSNI approved the recommended task on the benchmark on external events hazard frequency and magnitude statistical modelling, to be pursued by the WGEV. Modelling of these external events is a common practice in hazard and risk assessments in many countries. Having a valid statistical approach to model these hazards is important. However, current practice indicates a wide variety of approaches being used and a lack of appreciation of the uncertainties inherent to these types of statistical models. The objective of this activity is to provide a benchmark suitable to explore the application of typical approaches to external hazard representation through a data-informed process. This report captured two types of benchmarks, one with data and model provided and one with just data provided (a “blind test”).

This report summarises statistical modelling approaches from the organisations Électricité de France (EDF), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI).